Like a weather forecast: likely, not certain.
Ruto's chance, depending on one assumption. Why?
voters have not picked anyone yet.
Estimates, not predictions or recommendations. No candidate is officially nominated yet.
Look closer
Every candidate, and what if…?
Tap a question and watch the forecast change.
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Colours follow each candidate's party. The strip shows the likely share of first-round votes; the dashed line marks the 50% needed to win outright.
Build your own what-ifChoose who runs, where Gachagua's supporters go, how the runoff plays out and how much to trust the polls.
Closer to home
Governor and senator races
Pick a county. These are rough estimates until proper county polls are published.
Two incomplete polls exist (Nairobi governor, Mombasa senator). They are not used because they lack a sample size or fieldwork dates.
Behind the numbers
How this was worked out
The polls
What the polls say
Newer and bigger polls count more.
How support has moved since May
4 pollsFilled dots are TIFA polls; hollow dots are Infotrak.
Poll by poll
Newest firstFigures are percentages. The highest in each poll is in bold. Recent, larger polls weigh more in the average.
TIFA asks all adults "whether or not you … intend to vote", not only likely voters. Two other 2026 polls were left out: Mizani Africa (full results not found) and Politrack Africa (opt-in SMS and online sample, which is not representative). "Others" averages 2.5% and is not charted.
Read this before quoting a number
How sure is this?
Not very. Changing one assumption moves Ruto's chance from about 1 in 5 to 3 in 4.
Chance William Ruto is re-elected, by assumption
EstimateThe biggest unknown is the runoff. Kenya has never held a presidential runoff. If opposition voters stay with the opposition finalist, the opposition is favoured. If they split evenly, the incumbent is.
Constitution of Kenya, Article 138
How a president is elected
- CONDITION 150% + 1 vote
More than half the votes
More than 50% of all valid votes cast nationally. Exactly 50% is not enough.
- CONDITION 224 of 47 counties
At least 25% in each
The same candidate needs at least a quarter of the votes in more than half of the 47 counties.
- OTHERWISE30 days
A runoff
If nobody meets both conditions, the top two face a fresh election within 30 days. Most votes wins.
The model checks both conditions in every simulated election.
Method and data
Where every number comes from
IEBC declaration of presidential results, Bomas of Kenya, 15 August 2022. County totals add up exactly to the declared national result.
IEBC certified 2022 register (22,102,532 in the 47 counties) plus about 2.6 million new voters registered between September 2025 and April 2026. The 2027 total of about 24.7 million is an estimate until IEBC certifies the new register.
TIFA Research (May, June and November 2026) and Infotrak (June 2026), linked on the poll cards. County spread uses 2022 results and TIFA's regional figures.
How far polls can miss, how undecided voters split, how voters move in a runoff. You can change them yourself under "What if?".
Photo credits
Photos come from Wikimedia Commons under free licences, except where noted; everyone else is shown with initials. A photo says nothing about a candidate's chances.
- William Ruto: photo by Government of Kenya, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
- Edwin Sifuna: photo supplied by the page owner; original photographer not identified.
- Babu Owino: photo supplied by the page owner; original photographer not identified.
- James Gakuya: photo from Parliament of Kenya member profile; reuse terms not stated.
- Geoffrey Ruku: photo from Ministry of Public Service profile; reuse terms not stated.
- George Aladwa: photo from Parliament of Kenya member profile; reuse terms not stated.
- Dr. Cassypool: photo from whownskenya.com (cropped); reuse terms not stated.
- Jalang'o (Phelix Odiwuor): photo from Parliament of Kenya member profile; reuse terms not stated.
- Jaymo Ule Msee: photo supplied by the page owner (cropped); original photographer not identified.
- Kalonzo Musyoka: photo by Raidarmax, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
- Fred Matiang'i: photo by ICT Authority, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
- Rigathi Gachagua: photo by Nicolas Landemard / European Union, 2023 / EC - Audiovisual Service, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
- Johnson Sakaja: photo by LuffyDe, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.
- Ronald Karauri: photo by Raidarmax, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
- Winnie Odinga: photo by Kazimedia, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
- Suleiman Shahbal: photo by Ms Kabintie, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.
- Abdulswamad Nassir: photo from Mombasa County Government, Office of the Governor (cropped); reuse terms not stated.
- Mohamed Ali: photo from Parliament of Kenya member profile (cropped); reuse terms not stated.
- Hassan Omar: photo from his campaign website (cropped); reuse terms not stated.
- Agnes Kagure: photo by Knowledge Cloud, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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